What do the Convective Outlook probabilities mean?
For Day 1, the percentage lines provide the chance that the given type of severe weather (tornado, hail, or damaging thunderstorm wind) will happen within about 25 miles of a point. For Day 2 and Day 3, the probabilities cover all severe storm hazards together. Categorical (1-MRGL, 2-SLGT, 3-ENH, 4-MDT, 5-HIGH) labels are tied directly to the probability numbers as defined in this table for Day 1 , in this table for Day 2 and this one for Day 3 Convective Outlooks.
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